How do African countries differentiate themselves in terms of solar mini-grids for rural electrification? Let’s dive into international databases to catch a glimpse of the continent
If we are to believe the Bloomberg database1, the 15 African countries with the largest number of solar mini-grids2) (including hybrid solar-diesel mini-grids, but excluding solar concentration technologies), are, in descending order:
Senegal
Mali
Sierra Leone
Tanzania
Kenya
Angola
Madagascar
Nigeria
Burkina Faso
Liberia
Mauritania
Uganda
Rwanda
Democratic Republic of Congo
Zambia
Regulatory frameworks for access to energy based on “clean” energies
How do these 15 countries perform regarding regulatory environment? The World Bank’s Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE) provides useful information, including electricity access indicators3. These data were crossed with the Bloomberg Nef’s Climatescope which assesses the attractiveness of each country for clean energy investments, based on 123 indicators4.
Ranking of these fifteen countries regarding regulatory frameworks – based on RISE and Climatescope databases, March 2021
The group of countries “in green” indicates countries considered to have the most favorable regulatory framework for access to energy based on “clean” energies, while the “red” block represents the most unfavorable countries according to the cross-analysis of these international databases. The “orange” group symbolizes countries with an intermediate situation. Angola is breaking away from the aforementioned blocks.
Limits of this classification exercise
Like any exercise based on information and as the GIGO adage reminds us5, the quality of this analysis depends on databases’ own quality. In that sense, relying on these sources of information brings certain epistemological challenges, in particular due to their different nature and methodologies. The discrepancies between the databases also suggest a medium reliability, which was confirmed during interviews with experts in the sector. The information collected nevertheless remains sufficient for a rough and relative typology of countries in terms of mini-grids’ number and regulatory frameworks. In addition, the use of several databases allowed us to triangulate information to list the countries with relatively the most mini-grids without trying to determine their exact number (an extremely time-consuming task and probably impossible given the challenges of collecting and updating on an on-going basis this type of information!). Interviews with experts also helped to contrast this first analysis of international databases.
In my next article, I will share a more detailed analysis of a selection of five countries.
FERDI and AFSIA databases were also used to triangulate the information in Bloomberg’s list. The World Bank and Club ER databases were requested but without success [↩]
This article presents a technical overview of decentralized solutions for access to energy and in particular, solar mini-grids.
Alongside centralized electrification which is still the main approach, stand-alone solutions are now emerging as a promising alternative for electrifying rural populations. Buoyant technical innovations around stand-alone solutions, especially based on solar energy, are rocketting: mini-grids, energy kiosks, containers, kits, solar lamps, plug & play solar home systems (SHS), among others1.
Among this range of solutions, my research focuses on solar mini-grids, that is to say collective autonomous solutions which can technically be considered as an infrastructure and involve a form of governance specific to the common2.
The components of solar mini-grids
Solar stand-alone systems – graph retrieved from the MOOC Solar Energy: Photovoltaic (PV) Systems; TU Delft
Solar mini-grids generate electricity from solar radiation: this is we can summarize, in a few words, the role of these systems. The conversion of solar energy into electrical energy, then its distribution is carried out through the assembly of multiple components such as photovoltaic panels, cables, charge regulators, sometimes coupled with storage systems and transformation of direct current into alternating currents (inverters). They are also sometimes paired up with diesel generators under the name of “hybrid solar-diesel mini-grids”. We will refer to solar mini-grids and these hybrids under the generic term of “solar mini-grids”. More recently, monitoring and control systems such as smart electricity meters have been added to the panoply of mini-grids, sometimes referred to as “third-generation mini-grids”3.
Compared with other infrastructures, solar mini-grids are relatively standardized. Indeed, if it is possible to build, with local materials, local skills and various designs, latrines, bridges, drainage systems, forms of housing or even cooking equipment, the solar mini-grids, on the other hand, require technical components produced by specialized companies and skills that differentiate them from low tech and “indigenous innovations”4.
Despite this relative standardization, not all mini-grids are technically identical. What is the potential to adapt these systems to local conditions, both technically, socially and economically? This research notebook will allow us to come back in detail to the characteristics of mini-grids for rural electrification.
Jacquemot, P., & Reboulet, M.-N. (2017/12). Options technologiques et modèles d’organisation de l’électrification rurale en Afrique. Retours d’expériences. Afrique Contemporaine, 261 – 262, 155 -184; Numminen, S., & Lund, P. (2016). Frugal energy innovations for developing countries –a framework. Global Challenges, 1(1), 9 – 19 [↩]
Berthélemy, J.-C. (2016). Les mini-réseaux électriques comme exemple d’application des thèses d’Elinor Ostrom sur la gouvernance polycentrique de la tragédie des communs. Revue d’économie du développement, 24, 85-106 [↩]
“The typical third-generation mini grid is grid-interconnection ready; uses remote management systems, prepay smart meters, and the latest solar-hybrid technologies; and incorporates energy-efficient appliances for productive uses of electricity into its business model”, Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). (2019). Mini Grids for Half a Billion People : Market Outlook and Handbook for Decision Makers. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/mini-grids-for-half-a-billion-people [↩]
Gupta, AK (2006). From sink to source: The Honey Bee Network documents indigenous knowledge and innovations in India. Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization, 1 (3), 49-66. [↩]
This article gives some elements of definition on concepts related to the longevity of projects, infrastructures and institutions.
In the field of project evaluation and public development policies, the longevity of impacts is one of the most frequently cited criteria. It is thus one of the six evaluation criteria prioritized by the Development Assistance Committee of the OECD, translated as“sustainability” in English in the OECD glossary.
However, the use of “sustainability” requires some clarification.
The word “sustainability” has indeed acquired strong environmental, economic and social resonances since the Brundtland Report of 1987 which defines “sustainable development” as meeting “the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. In this definition, the idea of sustainability relates to the absence of negative impacts for future generations, often represented by the tree-fold concept “social – economic – environmental”. Recently, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Sustainable Development Agenda, which refer to the 17 SDG indicators, have also broadened the scope of the word “sustainable”.
17 Sustainable Development Goals
Another, neighbouring concept, is “viability”. It usually has a fairly strong economic connotation, representing the idea of medium and long-term financial equilibrium, of correspondence between costs and expenditure to ensure the survival of a company, for example. It is often associated with concepts related to economics, with expressions such as “economic viability”, “financial viability”, “commercial viability”, etc1
Finally, the word “longevity” seems to focus mainly on temporal aspects, as illustrated by this definition of the Cambridge dictionary: “living for a long time”. This definition is relatively neutral with no reference to what is “living for a long time”.
In conclusion, in this research notebook, we will use:
the word “viability” to describe the financial, economic or commercial aspects of sustainability
the word “sustainability” will be avoided because of its many meanings. It will be used mainly in connection with concepts such as “sustainable development” to refer to global agreements, reports and goals such as the Sustainable Development Goals. We might also use the word “sustainable” with associated concepts to describe specific aspects, such as “institutional sustainability”, “environmental sustainability”, and so on.
the word “longevity” that will be preferred to describe, generally speaking, the continuity over time of systems, institutions, technical objects such as solar mini-grids for rural electrification.
This research notebook will tackle later related concepts such as institutionalization, routinization and ownership.
The titles of these publications illustrate, for example, the economic connotation of “viability”:
Chakrabarty, Sayan, et Tawhidul Islam. « Financial Viability and Eco-Efficiency of the Solar Home Systems (SHS) in Bangladesh ». Energy, PRES 2010, 36, no 8 (1 août 2011): 4821‑27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.016.
Namuli, R., P. Pillay, B. Jaumard, et C. B. Laflamme. « Threshold Herd Size for Commercial Viability of Biomass Waste to Energy Conversion Systems on Rural Farms ». Applied Energy 108 (1 août 2013): 308‑22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.03.037.
Hossain Mondal, Md. Alam. « Economic Viability of Solar Home Systems: Case Study of Bangladesh ». Renewable Energy 35, no 6 (1 juin 2010): 1125‑29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.10.038. [↩]
How has evolved decentralized rural electrification in the Global South? In this blog, I am summarizing what has been described by several authors as the three paradigms for energy development.
1970’s – 1990’s: the “donor paradigm”
If we can trace the use of mini-grids for electrification back to the late 19th century (ESMAP, 2019), they were recognized as a promising alternative to electrify rural populations in emerging countries only in 1970’s. Designed on a small scale, often based on renewable energies, mini-grids become more common in the 1970s and 1980s through internationl funding such as pilot projects carried out by Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) (ESMAP, 2019; Martinot et al., 2002).
1990s – 2000s: the “market-oriented” paradigm
In the 1990s, this “donor paradigm” described by Martinot was followed by a “market-oriented paradigm” in a context of structural adjustments, investments’ disminution in the social sector and privatization of the electricity sector. Energy. This turnaround is justified by the mixed performance of mini-grids considered to be expensive and poorly maintained. One of the main reasons attributed to these failures is a technological “parachuting” by the North to the South that paid little attention to local ownership (Kruckenberg, 2015; Martinot et al., 2002). In the 1990s, the Bretton Woods institutions and in particular the World Bank (Cook, 2011) advocated for a major role of private actors in the rural electrification sector in order to both reduce costs and provide better quality services, as well as to ease a financial leverage effect (Massé et al., 2010), with a limited role of public authorities. This quote from a report by ESMAP[1], an organization linked to the World Bank, illustrates the atmosphere of this decade: “the optimal government role in the commercial PV market is the minimal involvement possible”. The State must therefore confine itself to the poorest populations, excluded from the market because of their insufficient income, and to improving information and regulatory frameworks to enhance the private sector’s profitability (Foley, 1995).
2000’s – today: the “Holistic sustainable energy paradigm”
At the same time, energy climbs to the podium of “elementary services” reaching out to water. This rank is formalized by its status of millennium development objective in 2000, then consolidated by its recognition of “essential service” at the Johannesburg summit in 2002 (Botton, 2006) and, more recently, as a sustainable development goal in 2015. This recognition of energy as a condition for development foreshadows what Sovacool calls the “holistic sustainable energy paradigm” (Sovacool, 2012), which can be dated back to the early 2000s. This paradigm recognizes that the vision of a decentralized rural electrification sector, almost exclusively private, is unrealistic given the limited profitability of expensive systems intended for customers with poor payment capacities. Communities’ participation, “type II” partnerships between national governments, NGOs, the private sector and international organizations[2] (Andonova & Levy, 2003) are supposed to solve the challenges that the private sector has not overcome as a lone ranger (Kruckenberg, 2015), in particular through productive uses of energy and by strengthening the water-energy-food link (“WEF nexus”, Hoff, 2011). In parallel, solar is taking the lead within renewable energies thanks to faster decreasing production costs than those of its hydro-electric competitor as well as its malleability, ensuring a deployment in most geographies and contexts, unlike wind and water-related energies.
Sovacool, Benjamin K. « Design principles for renewable energy programs in developing countries ». Energy & Environmental Science 5, no 11 (2012): 9157 62.
Ten years later, however, many challenges remain: solar systems, whether solar lamps, residential systems (SHS for Solar Home System) or solar mini-grid struggle to last in time and achieve economic viability (André-Bataille et al., 2020; Berthélemy & Maurel, 2021; Cross & Murray, 2018; Dávalos & Herrera, 2019; Feron et al., 2016)[3]. Technological innovations for remote payments, control and monitoring of solar installations, coupled with cost clustering, are now heralded as the new El Dorado for the longevity and viability of solar systems[4]. This rapid mixing of the different phases of the decentralized rural electrification sector sheds light on the trial and error process to create sustainable models of electrification for rural populations, with shifting roles for the private, public and civil society sectors.
In the next blog, we will come back to this concept of “sustainability”.
[1] ESMAP (Energy Sector Management Assistance Program) is a technical assistance program of the World Bank on energy issues in emerging countries. Its reports are well-recognized in the sector.
[2] “Type II” partnerships were promoted at the Johannesburg summit in 2002 to complement “type I” partnerships between governments (Andonova & Levy, 2003).
[3] The figures, admittedly disparate, collected by these authors, question the sustainability of access to electricity: 34% of off-grid systems are reported as inoperative in Peru by Ferón, almost 20% of solar products are said to have ceased to function after 18 months in Kenya according to Murray and Cross, 90% of the systems stopped functioning after ten years in Bolivia according to Dávalos & Herrera while 50% of the mini-grids would have failed according to the estimates from Berthelemy and Maurel. Disconnection rates of up to half of the users of certain mini-grids in Madagascar are also reported (André-Bataille et al., 2020; Cholez & Trompette, 2019).
[4] “The typical third-generation mini grid is grid-interconnection ready; uses remote management systems, prepay smart meters, and the latest solar-hybrid technologies; and incorporates energy-efficient appliances for productive uses of electricity into its business model. ”(ESMAP), 2019).
This research blog focuses on sustainability issues in the Global South. Sustainability is understood here not only as “sustainable development” but also in its temporal scale: how do so-called “sustainable” projects evolve over time? How do “sustainable” technical solutions maintain relationships with their environment, through complex and evolving socio-technical and economic networks? Research topics and approaches include social anthropology and development, sociology of innovation, maintenance and care studies, organizational theory.
This blog primarily summarizes findings from my PhD research on access to electricity’s longevity in Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal and Peru. It is also a space for broader discussions on science and technology sociology for sustainable development. As such, readers come not only from the Academia but also from institutions who decide and set in motion this “sustainability”.
In particular, this blog is a way to share back my research to all those who are contributing to its results, through formal and informal discussions… Please let me thank you again for your time and passion!
About me
Previously project manager and specialist in monitoring and evaluation of appropriate technologies for urban and rural populations in Latin America, Asia and Africa, I have worked for the last ten years on energy, water and sanitation, disaster risk management issues, with a particular interest on durability, sustainability and post-project evaluations.
The question that has driven me for several years is the following: what happens to development projects after the withdrawal of external support?
That is why at the end of 2020, I started a PhD to understand the sustainability of solar mini-grids in Africa and Latin America. I am studying how their conditions of governance, maintenance and their business models evolve in time. My thesis is being carried out at the University of Grenoble, under the supervision of Pascale Trompette and Sandrine Mathy (PACTE and GAEL lab), and in collaboration with Schneider Electric (Nicolas Plain, Emilienne Lepoutre and Olivier Jacquet).
However, I remain solely responsible for the opinions expressed here, as well as any potential errors and inaccuracies that may have crept into this blog!